Over the last few decades, as the housing crisis deepened and more locals slipped through the cracks, two gaps quietly opened up. They now define who gets to live here, and who doesn't.

The first is the homeownership gap.

In Santa Cruz County today, the homeownership rate is 59%. That's well below the national average of 65%. In the cities of Santa Cruz and Watsonville, where the population skews younger, the rate is closer to 40% and falling. Less than 10% of county residents can afford to buy a median-priced home. The math is unambiguous. Fewer owners. More renters. Every year.

In local housing-speak, there are only two categories. You either own, or you don't. And the gap between those two groups has become a gap in wealth, stability, and future opportunity.

The second gap is the age gap.

Homeownership in Santa Cruz is increasingly a privilege of older, aging baby boomers. Most have lived in their homes for twenty years or more. Many have ridden a low-supply market into more than a million dollars of equity inside modest beach homes. Most have paid off their mortgages, or locked in at 3% interest rates. They pay lower property taxes than their newer neighbors, thanks to Prop 13. They have no reason to leave.

Even if they wanted to, downsizing in a low-supply market is hard. And the stepped-up basis rules on capital gains create strong incentives to stay put and pass the home on at death.

Here's what the data shows.

Twenty-five percent of county residents are over 60. By 2030, that number will be 30%. The number of residents over 80 will have doubled between 2010 and 2030. The total county population has fallen nearly 4% since 2020, with every age group shrinking except 65 and older. And as the Sentinel recently reported, TK through 12th grade enrollment in our schools is dropping faster than anywhere else in California. 

Put it together and the picture is sharp. Santa Cruz is aging, shrinking, and concentrating wealth in the hands of those who got here first.

The question isn't whether this changes. The question is what kind of community is left when it does.

Sirrom Alizem REALTOR® | DRE# 02137532 Powered by eXp Realty